When Will the Big Changes Occur?

Newsletter of the week 12 December - 24 December. This week’s newsletter covers how Big changes are coming, to crypto, the world order, reserve currencies and global powers. But when can we expect them? Sam Bankman-Frieds arrest, and Bitcoin, DXY and US30 price action.
by Yoaquim Boom
December 21, 2022

In this week’s report

  • We all know that big changes in the global structure, will, and must occur. But what do these changes look like? And when can we expect them?
  • The arrest of ex-FTX CEO Sam Bankman-Fried marks the first of many changes to come for the cryptocurrency market.
  • US30 price analysis.
  • United States Dollar price analysis
  • BTC price analysis.

Big Changes are Ahead, but When Will They Occur?

Many of us will agree big changes are on the horizon. The global circumstances are set up in a manner that can greatly affect the future, especially the West. An interesting perspective to relate to these cycles is the theories and observations proposed by Ray Dalio in his book "Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order".

Every kingdom falls. Every empire falls. Every country falls/ Every monopoly falls. Or at least the very least, historically, there are no outliers to these rules.

For the remainder of this analysis, I will be referring to Kingdoms, Countries, World Powers, and Empires, as Empires.

Some of the current events that are in line with the usual fall of the great Empires are as follows.

The Historical Cycles of Great Empires

The world has seen many empires come and go through history. Some remain today, and others have entirely disappeared, such as the Greek and Roman empires. Those empires have left a legacy, but have disappeared as the world power they were at some point.

Yet, other empires, such as the Chinese empire(s), have remained a dominant world force for many centuries, dating past 200 BC., and remain a dominant force today. Although it had its ups and downs, its next up seems closer than ever.

Figure 1 below shows the relative strength of the three previous biggest world empires compared to one another. The three most dominant empires in the past 500 years were the Dutch, British and American empires.

America's power is currently in decline, while in contrast, the Chinese empire is ever closer to being the world's strongest force if they have not achieved it already.

Whenever an Empire or Country becomes the 'world power' or the strongest most influential country, it tends to hold the reserve currency for the world.

Today, that is the US dollar, but it seems we are ever closer to that changing.

Russia and China are currently preparing a new gold-backed currency in a move that would aim to dethrone the dollar as the primary reserve currency of the world.

In the West, we are seeing a sense of coping, with many 'experts coming out to say that "any such currency would unlikely achieve that goal" and "expert assures US dollar 'safest' currency today"

The Cycles of Empires

I request you to take a quick look at Figure 2 below, study the historically observed cycle given there, and place America and the West somewhere on the list.

Although I do not like saying so, we are on a steep decline and are seeing many of the features of the decline phase. Only some of them are large debts, printing money, internal conflict, and weak leadership.

Arguably, we're seeing a loss of reserve currency. And who knows, a revolution may be just on the horizon.

This is not meant to monger fear, but rather to make sure the facts of cycles and empires are shown to you.

All Credits: Ray Dalio
All Credits: Ray Dalio

Sam Bankman-Fried's Arrest as a Marker of Change

Sam Bankman-Fried, the founder of the collapsed cryptocurrency exchange FTX, has been arrested in The Bahamas.

Police said Bankman-Fried, 30, was arrested for "financial offenses" against laws in the US and The Bahamas.

Bankman-Fried reportedly reconsidered his earlier decision to contest extradition and is expected to appear in court in the Bahamas on December 19 to seek a reversal.

By consenting to extradition, he would be able to appear in a United States court. If convicted, he could get up to 115 years in jail.

Fig. 4 Sam Bankman-Fried Arrested in Bahamas  

US 30 / DJIA

The stock market put a high on the 1st of December, which peaked above during the FOMC reaction on December 13th.

Although this peak was only a wick and did not see any follow through.

The general idea remains the same as in previous weeks. There are many support areas including 32000 and 30000 from which we can see a bounce.

Although in light of the global economic situation the lows should be expected to eventually be taken. With a final target of 26000 - 26500.

Fig. 2 1D DJIA Dec - Dec (TradingView)


The US dollar has seen continued weakness despite a relatively decent crash in the stock market since its peak.

We may see a reversal with true support down at 102 and a slow grind down. This does pose a problem for the stock market. If the DXY has shown no increased weakness or strength despite the stock market moves, it will catch up quickly once it catches up.

If the DXY desires to rally, the stock market will see a large selloff. This should be kept in mind by investors and traders.

Fig. 3 1D DXY May - Dec (TradingView)


Just like the stock market, the FOMC reaction pump put in the high at about 18400.

Bitcoin found a footing at 16400 and the bulls currently have to prove strength by flipping the resistance indicated at 17400.

If Bitcoin loses its footing at 16400 then we'll see a quick retest of the lows at 15500 to 16000.

Fig. 4 1D Bitcoin Jan - Nov (TradingView)