Unveiling Alameda's FTX Balance Sheet and Market Implications

Alameda's balance sheet looks unbalanced. This is dangerous for the whole industry.
by Yoaquim
July 17, 2023

Let me start by saying, this is tough. 

Alameda Research's balance sheet has been revealed. And it appears that these guys are in a tougher situation than anybody thought, with a whopping $14.6 billion at stake. 

Now, here's the catch: 90% of this value is comprised of what some might refer to as "made up internet money." Yes, you read that right.

But hold on, there's more. 

We can't ignore the $6 billion that mysteriously remains unmentioned on the balance sheet. Speculations suggest that this portion might be comprised of stablecoins or other unlisted assets, commonly known as alts. 

It seems that many pieces of the puzzle are falling into place, in a bad way...

Remember when Sam Bankman-Fried and his Alameda / FTX trading team was fiercely protecting the $18,000 mark? Well, it now becomes clear why he was so adamant about it, that was the point of no return.

At the time Sam was also extremely actively actively promoting FTT and other coins, perhaps in an attempt to divert attention from Alameda's precarious situation & pump the price. 

Worst of all, or best, depending on what side you’re on, it wouldn't be surprising if someone decides to track down Alameda just as they did with 3AC.

Let's delve into the numbers a bit. 

Based on a quick calculation, it is reasonable to estimate that Alameda has roughly $2 billion in stablecoins. 

This news carries significant weight and paints a bearish picture for the market as a whole.

Now, before you go ahead and panic, I must emphasize that it is not advisable to make any drastic moves like withdrawing your funds from FTX. 

While it may seem like a safer option given the prevailing uncertainty, we must remember that these are just initial speculations.

We had long theorized that Sam was facing pressure, and these recent revelations only solidify those suspicions.

Alameda's balance sheet indicates that they hold a measly $134 million in cash and equivalents. Frankly, Alameda's financial position is rather embarrassing.

Here's what the balance sheet looks like:

But what if those assets aren't stablecoins after all? 

Perhaps they consist of other altcoins. This whole situation becomes even more shameful for them.

These revelations align with the loss of trillions in crypto market cap that we've recently witnessed. 

It seems that much of this decline can be attributed to Alameda and others paying off their loans and debts, which they had secured at favorable rates.

Furthermore, it's quite likely that Alameda holds a substantial portion, around 90%, of FTX's native FTT token. 

We might anticipate Sam releasing a statement labeling this article as mere FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt). 

However, as the saying goes, "If it looks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, then it probably is a duck."

The revelation that "3.65 billion of unlocked FTT" exceeds the current circulating market capitalization is significant. 

Alameda certainly wields considerable influence and has been quite successful in capitalizing on various opportunities. 

Although they have faced their fair share of losses, it is difficult to imagine them defaulting entirely.

Nevertheless, it wouldn't hurt to see some pre-FOMC FUD (Fear, Uncertainty, and Doubt) to induce short positions. 

The sudden surfacing of this information, which apparently stems from a report four months ago, raises questions about its timing.

Even Stevie Wonder could see that SBF (Sam Bankman-Fried) was fiercely protecting the $18,000 mark. 

And now, the reasons behind his efforts are becoming increasingly apparent.

Consider the implications if SOL (Solana) were to drop to $10. 

Such a scenario could have a significant impact on Alameda’s balance sheet.

The absence of stablecoins on Alameda's balance sheet is puzzling, given the usual grouping of smaller assets. 

Let's not forget that a similar situation led to the LUNA attack. 

Certain prominent players discovered the fragility of their balance sheets, and exploited this.

But who might have the motive to hunt down Alameda? 

Well, the same individuals who profited handsomely from the collapse of LUNA, earning a clean $10 million net profit and more. 

To orchestrate such an operation, one would need roughly $1 billion.

Allow me to outline a hypothetical plan of action. 

Step one: open long positions on FTT, SOL, and BTC. 

Step two: commence purchasing FTT, SOL, and BTC. 

Step three: increase long positions while unloading tranches of FTT and SOL into longs. 

Step four: open significant short positions on all coins within Sam's ecosystem, including FTT, SOL, SRM, RAY, MAPS, and more. 

Step five: initiate the sale of BTC. 

Step six: execute market sells of the remaining FTT and SOL.

Step seven: maintain pressure and increase shorts as prices decline. 

Step eight: await rumors of Alameda's potential liquidation as asset prices plummet. 

Step nine: close all short positions. 

Step ten: celebrate with a coffee alongside Soros.

It’s simpler than it may seem, especially in crypto.

In conclusion, the recent revelations regarding Alameda Research's balance sheet have created significant buzz within the market. 

It's crucial to keep a close eye on these developments as they unfold.